MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x047c6e32113504106ca9ed7a5f78c7415b2f9282d220f31dec6161e1213d2763
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 2,895$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.68 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 2,845$1,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.15 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 1,990$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.92 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…cf21backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 1,944$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.74 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Chicago Cubs | 29c | 1,283$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.07 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 1,080$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.53 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 482.45$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.88 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f3…e57dbacked Chicago Cubs | 4c | 471.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 330.32$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 265.75$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.64 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 203.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 192.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 169.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 158.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 144.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Chicago Cubs | 24c | 129.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 82.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…b2b8backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 66.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 52.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 48.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 42.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 754 | 53.2%401 W · 353 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 40.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 40.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 40.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 40.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 40.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 40.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 40.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 40.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 40.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 40.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 40.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 40.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 40.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 40.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 40.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 38.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 38.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 38.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 38.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…46e4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 38.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 36.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 34.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 34.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 33.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +15.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 31.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 29.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 27.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 25.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 23.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 23.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 23.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 21.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 15.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.