MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe437d042b808706ad5f677c45e26898dee18a06071f89cf3cfbd616793e00d65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 3,527$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,616.46 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 2,833$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.05 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 1,015$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.65 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 784.37$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.93 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 687.31$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 660.13$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.03 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 534.6$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.28 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 472.73$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.82 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 453.38$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.69 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 328.87$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.03 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 293.91$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.17 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 260.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.83 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 228.92$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.22 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 192.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.93 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 168.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.34 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 132.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 123.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 80c | 118.17$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…be97backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 114.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 108.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 88.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…68fbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 78.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 73.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 69.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Chicago Cubs | 66c | 67.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 65.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 62.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 62.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…178abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 60.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 53.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 52.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 51.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 50.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 48.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 48.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 48.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 47.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 46.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…46e4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 46.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 45.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 44.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 39.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 38.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 30.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…4989backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 30.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 28.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 28.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 21.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…d45bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 17.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.