MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe057eff5b6e1cdcc72afaa29facd07c8699e4d386cdb149cd20f32cb9b21a67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 18c | 2,288$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.19 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 1,434$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 1,386$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 1,191$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.11 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 17c | 607.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 29c | 434.54$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.77 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 55c | 371.78$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.27 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 45c | 296$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.8 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 45c | 290.1$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.56 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 33c | 254.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 66c | 204.37$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Over | 42c | 179.91$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 70c | 170.83$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 64c | 128.41$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 64c | 124.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 64c | 124.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 64c | 124.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 64c | 124.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 64c | 124.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 64c | 124.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 64c | 123.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Over | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 60c | 89.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Over | 68c | 86.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Over | 65c | 83.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 77c | 80.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 42c | 76.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 57c | 75.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 57c | 75.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Over | 57c | 75.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 57c | 75.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 57c | 75.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 57c | 75.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 57c | 75.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 57c | 75.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 57c | 75.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 49c | 73.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 56c | 71.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 30c | 67.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Over | 80c | 59.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 37c | 57.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 75c | 52.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Over | 73c | 47.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Over | 57c | 42.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba2…f46bbacked Over | 57c | 42.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Over | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 42c | 30.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 58c | 28.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Over | 56c | 28.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 68c | 25.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.