F1 · resolved market
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x051f7c12a1e325d8c983511d9f813c806bbb065562874bb5bdf2d29a066df48c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 4c | 8,856$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.2 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 2,659$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,519$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,495$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb826…8d67backed Yes | 7c | 1,374$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,293$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 8c | 1,032$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a49…15e6backed Yes | 6c | 1,024$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 9c | 833.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 5c | 715$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd52…f190backed Yes | 7c | 500.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 7c | 490$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…e3b6backed Yes | 7c | 442.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 7c | 395$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…df81backed Yes | 7c | 359$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…d5dcbacked Yes | 6c | 333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…6768backed Yes | 15c | 313.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…dcc7backed Yes | 7c | 300.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…d035backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…35dcbacked Yes | 7c | 291.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed Yes | 10c | 228.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…b1b2backed Yes | 7c | 216.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…9017backed Yes | 12c | 214.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca3c…ef7dbacked Yes | 7c | 214$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450c…6609backed Yes | 7c | 214$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8876…1f1ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700e…7ee4backed Yes | 7c | 198$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…58afbacked Yes | 7c | 195$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 191.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…8d6ebacked Yes | 12c | 190.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 184.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 9c | 178$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ec…e5b0backed Yes | 10c | 145$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 11c | 137.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…fc85backed Yes | 10c | 123$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6690…f39cbacked Yes | 13c | 121$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9a…961ebacked Yes | 10c | 118$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e3…c8c8backed Yes | 10c | 116$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…bba6backed Yes | 10c | 115$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a0…eeacbacked Yes | 16c | 112$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…51e2backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x261f…3cb1backed Yes | 18c | 106$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1b22backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a92…ca9cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…ad99backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059b…f9a3backed Yes | 13c | 93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…72b6backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 China Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 China Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 China Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 China Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will another racer win the 2025 China Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.