F1 · resolved market
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x397c34bbec48f2b05b82efd1c63653e84777770321ab8ba457b1859c4f13f1fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 9c | 5,109$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.11 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 2,431$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 3c | 1,619$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 5c | 1,198$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 9c | 1,001$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 8c | 800$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 639.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…6768backed Yes | 4c | 599.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 5c | 519.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 8c | 506.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed Yes | 9c | 429.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…a46fbacked Yes | 7c | 349$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 318.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed Yes | 9c | 270.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 256.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 7c | 253.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 8c | 252.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 7c | 239.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 8c | 215$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa1…078cbacked Yes | 9c | 210.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…6a4bbacked Yes | 9c | 197$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48d…8b88backed Yes | 9c | 187$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12b…a18fbacked Yes | 7c | 183$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed Yes | 9c | 182.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 173.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8338…b05bbacked Yes | 9c | 158$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 8c | 157.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a1…954cbacked Yes | 8c | 156$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7d…c230backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc75…9b8abacked Yes | 9c | 144$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…32d5backed Yes | 9c | 142.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 9c | 136.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…d9f5backed Yes | 9c | 128$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb63…5241backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 China Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 China Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 China Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 China Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will another racer win the 2025 China Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.