Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0522f7100e04d858ede7885eac5b9a4f133c0f4f1a8bffeb8a3589819b114e50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 42c | 589.86$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 44c | 358.31$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 56c | 292.51$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.85 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 249.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 66c | 212.5$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 40c | 206.7$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 188.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 40c | 176.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 175.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…541dbacked Yes | 59c | 169.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 62c | 162$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 63c | 158.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 39c | 146.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 137$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 39c | 131.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 112.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 100.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7d…2388backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 36c | 94.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 37c | 84.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 78.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 38c | 76.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed Yes | 59c | 73.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 64c | 73.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 72.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 59c | 66.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 64c | 64.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 64.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 52c | 57.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 57.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 37c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 64c | 47.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 46.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 41c | 43.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 56c | 39.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 36.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 55c | 35.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 35.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked No | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccf…f061backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…4fafbacked Yes | 58c | 32.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 39c | 32.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 45c | 32.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 75c | 32.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…9599backed Yes | 55c | 30.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 62c | 30.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 64c | 29.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 40c | 26.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 71c | 26.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…5900backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a15…f847backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1f…3cd1backed Yes | 60c | 24.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 62c | 24.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 45c | 22.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7e48…1bf2backed Yes | 62c | 21.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 69c | 21.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…49b1backed Yes | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 62c | 20.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 62c | 19.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 63c | 18.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.