Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39671d60dbd4985e087bc001a8aebfb88810a833fbcecd25d21f09fc9664a1f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 951$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 28c | 698.24$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.28 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 381.82$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 305.81$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 267.43$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 262$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 250.22$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 249.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 229.23$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 210.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 194.03$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 137$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 133.32$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 132.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 117.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 22c | 96.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 94.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 84.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 73c | 82.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 65c | 76.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 25c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 79c | 70.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 72c | 67.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 65.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 61.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 75c | 52.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 51.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 31c | 39.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 37.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 34.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 34c | 32.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 29.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c5…676abacked Yes | 37c | 28.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 28.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 27.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 71c | 26.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…2328backed No | 80c | 23.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 16.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 15.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…8529backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.