Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Wolves Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0576cbd6601c66bc967fe178af6976cc6fbb9274c6801e169bced9a28639acf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wolves Esportsof XLG Gaming, Wolves Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Wolves Esports | 56c | 998.96$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.1 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…3dd2backed XLG Gaming | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Wolves Esports | 57c | 580$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.4 | 196 | 56.6%111 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Wolves Esports | 57c | 543.94$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.89 | 339 | 42.2%143 W · 196 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed XLG Gaming | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -12.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Wolves Esports | 56c | 362.21$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.86 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Wolves Esports | 57c | 350.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.29 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed XLG Gaming | 43c | 345.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…cfc5backed XLG Gaming | 43c | 279.07$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked XLG Gaming | 44c | 278.55$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 287 | 47.4%136 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Wolves Esports | 59c | 275.33$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.42 | 201 | 60.2%121 W · 80 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…bd32backed Wolves Esports | 58c | 257.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked XLG Gaming | 43c | 233.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Wolves Esports | 56c | 200.48$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.26 | 253 | 47%119 W · 134 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c8…a814backed XLG Gaming | 45c | 199.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Wolves Esports | 60c | 179.76$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.17 | 492 | 55.3%272 W · 220 L | +23.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed XLG Gaming | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 199 | 45.2%90 W · 109 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…31e6backed XLG Gaming | 44c | 154.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 361 | 45.7%165 W · 196 L | +22.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…bb76backed XLG Gaming | 43c | 139$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a12…3c0ebacked XLG Gaming | 44c | 135$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Wolves Esports | 59c | 124.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 553 | 48.3%267 W · 286 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed XLG Gaming | 41c | 122.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 238 | 47.9%114 W · 124 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked XLG Gaming | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 258 | 43%111 W · 147 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb08c…87f7backed Wolves Esports | 62c | 120.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed Wolves Esports | 56c | 119.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -8.4wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Wolves Esports | 58c | 117.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…0f3abacked Wolves Esports | 46c | 116.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed XLG Gaming | 44c | 114.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Wolves Esports | 61c | 104.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 639 | 55.6%355 W · 284 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Wolves Esports | 58c | 102.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173e…9ff4backed Wolves Esports | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…c45dbacked XLG Gaming | 44c | 91.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed XLG Gaming | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 229 | 55%126 W · 103 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…4eecbacked XLG Gaming | 57c | 86.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 176 | 42.6%75 W · 101 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked XLG Gaming | 43c | 75.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cef…dbcbbacked XLG Gaming | 44c | 68.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 203 | 47.3%96 W · 107 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Wolves Esports | 67c | 64.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 391 | 66%258 W · 133 L | +24.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…7c9dbacked XLG Gaming | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…9c5cbacked XLG Gaming | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…45f6backed Wolves Esports | 60c | 32.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Wolves Esports | 59c | 31.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 930 | 49.4%459 W · 471 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Wolves Esports (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group OmegaXLG Gaming won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Wolves Esports - Map 1 WinnerXLG Gaming won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Wolves Esports - Map 2 WinnerWolves Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.