TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Omega

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
XLG Gamingof XLG Gaming, Wolves Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$198,285
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$222,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,285 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 330 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0f34…7684backed Wolves Esports3c23,071$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.1140%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked XLG Gaming72c18,054$12,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,065.2628955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeac2…dddcbacked Wolves Esports30c18,020$5,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,435.5912652.4%66 W · 60 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Wolves Esports29c12,128$3,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,491.9733942.2%143 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac6…122fbacked Wolves Esports33c5,869$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+58%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcece…ffeebacked XLG Gaming68c4,563$3,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.521540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2276…efd0backed XLG Gaming71c4,372$3,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.643177.4%24 W · 7 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+27.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed XLG Gaming71c4,366$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.234857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked XLG Gaming54c4,057$2,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.766445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed XLG Gaming70c4,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.4119860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17d3…586bbacked Wolves Esports29c3,788$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.516250%31 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Wolves Esports27c3,734$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.7122449.1%110 W · 114 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Wolves Esports29c3,500$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.983243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Wolves Esports21c3,450$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.3650944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed XLG Gaming60c2,555$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0222556%14 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Wolves Esports25c2,499$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.8957151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Wolves Esports29c2,410$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.5741734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed XLG Gaming71c2,300$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6674158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x565c…878dbacked Wolves Esports34c2,043$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.062123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed XLG Gaming58c1,976$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.452356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Wolves Esports16c1,960$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.8132245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7f3b…11fbbacked XLG Gaming67c1,891$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.86633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-45.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04d2…4850backed XLG Gaming79c1,871$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.113951.1%71 W · 68 L+12.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8112…1e6fbacked Wolves Esports42c1,711$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.253132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Wolves Esports38c1,619$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.393049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c90…5b3ebacked XLG Gaming76c1,597$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.913658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+59.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed XLG Gaming66c1,552$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.31,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked XLG Gaming69c1,262$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.2888844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4087…048bbacked XLG Gaming62c1,261$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.21464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+83.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0993…525fbacked XLG Gaming70c1,237$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.033767.6%25 W · 12 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+32.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked Wolves Esports31c1,226$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.569737.1%36 W · 61 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Wolves Esports31c1,210$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37529733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Wolves Esports30c1,200$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3581060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc290…2e06backed Wolves Esports11c1,134$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.235414.8%8 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6840…6003backed XLG Gaming71c1,127$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.764271.4%30 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Wolves Esports15c1,042$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.1128743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed XLG Gaming69c1,033$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.2716952.1%88 W · 81 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Wolves Esports30c916.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.14452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Wolves Esports38c910.93$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35028747.4%136 W · 151 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked XLG Gaming57c887.99$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.8455152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed XLG Gaming78c868.5$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.0710159.4%60 W · 41 L+11.4wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8c8b…7a07backed XLG Gaming71c850$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.510664.2%68 W · 38 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed XLG Gaming68c818.72$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.891,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8976…7367backed XLG Gaming64c788.96$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.715343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked Wolves Esports32c749.98$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.493661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked XLG Gaming74c740.08$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.981,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa34f…1cfabacked XLG Gaming69c725.94$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.94850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde59…f49bbacked Wolves Esports40c719.25$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Wolves Esports33c714.05$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.5815147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked XLG Gaming72c713$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.6433153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed XLG Gaming70c712.87$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.8723463.7%149 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed XLG Gaming74c710.99$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.089845.9%45 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f2…a80dbacked XLG Gaming71c710$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.96668.2%45 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Wolves Esports31c709.19$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.3844342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked XLG Gaming72c695.14$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.1411458.8%67 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadef…8fffbacked XLG Gaming72c678.2$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.92433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-46%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77f1…e320backed Wolves Esports44c677.91$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.281866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x928d…ca45backed Wolves Esports14c675.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.65226.9%14 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Wolves Esports33c649.65$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.011,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Wolves Esports15c637$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7820138.3%77 W · 124 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed XLG Gaming66c598.76$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.725455.6%30 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed XLG Gaming60c582.8$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.7311843.2%51 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked XLG Gaming77c578.14$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.73655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Wolves Esports27c571.71$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7726932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Wolves Esports32c568.06$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.6849255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed XLG Gaming72c552.78$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.783551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked XLG Gaming70c552.02$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.025556.4%31 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed XLG Gaming73c548.46$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.0816547.9%79 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ec…64b6backed Wolves Esports24c546.81$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.036028.3%17 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ce8…4dd6backed XLG Gaming61c537.99$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.821241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a1…e38bbacked XLG Gaming60c513$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.22650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Wolves Esports18c503.39$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9825347%119 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Wolves Esports31c500.1$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.0325453.5%136 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked XLG Gaming71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14524457.8%141 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked Wolves Esports29c499.98$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.998334.9%29 W · 54 L-9.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Wolves Esports28c489.15$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4821136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked XLG Gaming65c471$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.3255637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Wolves Esports29c469.38$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6436145.7%165 W · 196 L+22.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed XLG Gaming63c468.03$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.9451749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x069a…7c82backed Wolves Esports44c459.18$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b50…fd61backed XLG Gaming78c448$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.561225%3 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-61.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x96f9…6c15backed XLG Gaming71c431.79$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.22728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-56.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5179…4eecbacked XLG Gaming65c407.11$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.4717642.6%75 W · 101 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1cc…3bf0backed XLG Gaming72c402.78$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7812755.9%71 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Wolves Esports31c400.78$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4728252.5%148 W · 134 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf29d…add3backed Wolves Esports29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed XLG Gaming69c383.98$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.7932462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Wolves Esports29c376.59$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0724551%125 W · 120 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked XLG Gaming67c372.52$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.931,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed XLG Gaming67c369.8$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.86437.5%24 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Wolves Esports28c367.64$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5116144.7%72 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Wolves Esports27c365.79$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5131227.6%86 W · 226 L-33.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed XLG Gaming71c354.46$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7946347.1%218 W · 245 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260f…6980backed Wolves Esports13c350$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.55532.7%18 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Wolves Esports39c350$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.553442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed XLG Gaming60c340$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13616950.9%86 W · 83 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0daf…17a9backed Wolves Esports30c333.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.013253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+27.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ec7…4a76backed Wolves Esports26c331.96$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9914959.7%89 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed XLG Gaming70c329.37$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6313661%83 W · 53 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x13c8…a814backed Wolves Esports46c324.79$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502536%9 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.