Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x058747ba40ee4ba0c5ea8c58d483434cdd57d5e228fd1e6ec0a73003b29813c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 2c | 2,443$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 42c | 1,899$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.03 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked No | 8c | 1,368$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,065$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.37 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 860.12$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 2c | 815.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 18c | 763.92$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.59 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 630.51$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 69c | 584.36$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.78 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 3c | 571.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 17c | 549.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.17 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 425.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.01 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 24c | 408.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.7 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 27c | 400$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed No | 13c | 385.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 356.58$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 49c | 334.61$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.61 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 309.6$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 79c | 251.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 11c | 242.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.92 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 19c | 242.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 47c | 215.9$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.54 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.06 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 199.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 13c | 196.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 190.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.94 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 189.92$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 180.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 80c | 174.04$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 45c | 155.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 146.06$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 24c | 142.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.41 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 40c | 134.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 130.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed Yes | 24c | 123.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 15c | 111.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.97 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 98.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 82.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 17c | 65.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 55.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 39c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 74c | 45.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 69c | 39.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 53c | 37.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 67c | 36.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 62c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 78c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 25.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 76c | 23.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 67c | 23.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 23.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 22.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 63c | 21.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…59b0backed No | 69c | 18.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 18.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 73c | 17.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 17.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.