Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd74cbe17ae87774157d7505302c653499a2f5cbfb9c87e5e01688983d179929f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,855$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 816.49$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 809.29$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 45c | 609.99$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.72 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 55c | 548.58$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.58 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 22c | 394.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 77c | 286.62$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 47c | 224.91$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…f949backed Yes | 36c | 223.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 219.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 34c | 216.91$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 38c | 199.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 177.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 161.15$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 159$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 50c | 146.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 146.06$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 134.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 134.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 53c | 131.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 77c | 129$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 111.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 106$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 100.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 92.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 90.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 38c | 88.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 87.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 68c | 85.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 30c | 82.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Yes | 41c | 67.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 33c | 64.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 30c | 62.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 63c | 61.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 60.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 63c | 54.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 53.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 30c | 53.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 53.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 25c | 52.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 31c | 48.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…f02cbacked No | 73c | 45.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 45.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 44.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 44.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 36.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 38c | 36.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 38c | 36.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 34.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 58c | 33.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 33c | 30.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cc…3ea3backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 52c | 25.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 69c | 23.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 67c | 21.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 71c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 70c | 20.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 20.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e0…3adbbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 16.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 67c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.