Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca563217287a5c878e495d979473d18ed38a032899d6877ae15c115b76502221
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,095$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 960.45$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 8c | 499.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 26c | 435.62$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.73 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 2c | 401.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 27c | 335.69$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.98 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 285.95$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 35c | 285.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 243.65$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 65c | 229.23$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 226$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 73c | 213.25$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 213.25$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 186$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 176.2$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 170.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 26c | 164.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 77c | 161.89$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 80c | 141.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 45c | 136$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 134.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…76cebacked No | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 77c | 128.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 64c | 114$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 31c | 112.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 104.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 95.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 24c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 87.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 26c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 71.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 70.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 65.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 74c | 64.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 57.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 20c | 54.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 38c | 53.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 65c | 52.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 25c | 52.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 34c | 51.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 68c | 50.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 49.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 22c | 49.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 22c | 48.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 48.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 46.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 67c | 44.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba6…6c16backed No | 69c | 42.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 41c | 40.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 39.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 54c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 66c | 38.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…614abacked No | 69c | 38.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 78c | 37.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…b0d4backed Yes | 41c | 36.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5d04backed No | 80c | 36.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 35.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 73c | 34.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…8d65backed No | 69c | 34.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 75c | 34.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 77c | 33.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 64c | 32.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 30.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 29.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 74c | 29.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…2b3bbacked Yes | 34c | 29.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 66c | 24.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 23.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 67c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 65c | 21.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 75c | 20.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 70c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 16.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 15.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…71a7backed No | 70c | 15.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.