Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05ce0463958c71842cba2acb839d368d285aaf90b101c03846d826055e50b1a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 55c | 2,601$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.46 | 292 | 36.3%106 W · 186 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ff…3fcdbacked No | 53c | 2,061$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 14c | 1,255$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.51 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 24c | 1,100$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.5 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Yes | 47c | 882.97$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.52 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 52c | 594.69$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.65 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82af…f7d1backed Yes | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 54c | 446.44$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.85 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…9629backed Yes | 24c | 377.12$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked No | 39c | 187.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 62c | 180$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed No | 56c | 179.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 59c | 170.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 15c | 124.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 113.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 184 | 40.2%74 W · 110 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 35c | 91.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 42c | 80.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63d3…158dbacked No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed No | 45c | 62.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…9603backed No | 44c | 62.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 54c | 60.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x001e…8dfabacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 56.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed No | 40c | 49.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 50c | 42.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…b959backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…0b4ebacked No | 52c | 40.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 79c | 40.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…bcfdbacked No | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 61.2%74 W · 47 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…d061backed No | 54c | 36.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…4c4abacked No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ed…a533backed No | 52c | 23.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486a…ca69backed Yes | 55c | 18.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.