Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d6f5b5d44152d5df8b87cab0db350306a3b2d380a94f227aae9a9468e47d290
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 1c | 1,297$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…d0c6backed Yes | 37c | 801.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.32 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 35c | 701.15$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.45 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed No | 51c | 684.05$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.19 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 682.78$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.73 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Yes | 31c | 482.53$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.21 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 35c | 420.25$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.12 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 402.86$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.63 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 68c | 254.61$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.43 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ff…3fcdbacked No | 64c | 250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 28c | 249.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.18 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…8e33backed Yes | 38c | 172.8$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 158.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.44 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 154.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.75 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 36c | 142.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed No | 67c | 138.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 52c | 128.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed No | 78c | 127.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 35c | 118.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 61c | 83.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…857ebacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2565…8eebbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed No | 58c | 44.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…fcffbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee1…9212backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…bcfdbacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 61.2%74 W · 47 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…38eebacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 64c | 24.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…7621backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed No | 59c | 18.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.