Tennis · resolved market
Chengdu Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0661acb2a87287df65f87ecc9d18bab14bbb99d6cea3779b2dcd7452d0d0fbe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tabiloof Musetti, Tabilo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Tabilo | 26c | 5,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,700 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Musetti | 74c | 4,671$3,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,468.41 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Tabilo | 38c | 2,748$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.3 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Tabilo | 22c | 1,021$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.69 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…6f5cbacked Musetti | 72c | 1,004$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Tabilo | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Musetti | 71c | 972.04$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.55 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Musetti | 79c | 881.25$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Musetti | 72c | 842$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.87 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Tabilo | 28c | 800.44$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.32 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Tabilo | 22c | 799.98$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.98 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Musetti | 72c | 760.7$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…335abacked Musetti | 72c | 711.44$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.49 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Musetti | 51c | 653.57$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.16 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Musetti | 55c | 542.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Tabilo | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Musetti | 74c | 442.16$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Musetti | 72c | 420$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 227 | 23.8%54 W · 173 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Tabilo | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Musetti | 78c | 326.23$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.46 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed Musetti | 76c | 323$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.48 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…39aabacked Musetti | 77c | 315$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Musetti | 78c | 257.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Tabilo | 53c | 246.42$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.42 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Musetti | 67c | 239.42$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.58 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Tabilo | 26c | 210$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.9 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…e407backed Tabilo | 23c | 173.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.89 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Musetti | 51c | 150$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Musetti | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Tabilo | 49c | 137.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Musetti | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Musetti | 75c | 134.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Musetti | 77c | 129.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Tabilo | 22c | 129.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.35 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Tabilo | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…db3dbacked Tabilo | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…f067backed Musetti | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Tabilo | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Tabilo | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed Tabilo | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…82f1backed Tabilo | 25c | 96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Tabilo | 26c | 76.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Musetti | 70c | 74.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Musetti | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked Musetti | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Musetti | 52c | 59.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Musetti | 62c | 56.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Musetti | 78c | 46.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Musetti | 67c | 42.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Musetti | 58c | 42.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Tabilo | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Musetti | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Musetti | 72c | 30.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed Musetti | 77c | 29.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Musetti | 73c | 22.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8f9abacked Musetti | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.