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Mls · resolved market

Inter Miami CF vs. Chicago Fire FC: Chicago Fire FC O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,918
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,875

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,918 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc291…5d74backed Under75c868.48$649 inWon+$2191,88836.5%690 W · 1,198 L-7.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over26c700.98$185 inLost-$185.3922941.5%95 W · 134 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Over40c499.99$200 inLost-$200683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+73.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Under71c340.17$242 inWon+$98.6510358.3%60 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under60c288.5$173 inWon+$115.41,44936.8%533 W · 916 L-12.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under60c171.67$103 inWon+$68.6247840.2%192 W · 286 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…d743backed Over28c156.18$44 inLost-$43.733112.9%4 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-53.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Over22c112.73$25 inLost-$24.88760.9%53 W · 34 L+13.7wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+24.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xaec8…c5d4backed Over34c73.53$25 inLost-$25475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+63.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c5b…54f5backed Over31c64.74$20 inLost-$201650%8 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Over22c50$11 inLost-$1127344.3%121 W · 152 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d1…de26backed Under60c41.67$25 inWon+$16.675858.6%34 W · 24 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+30.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under73c30$22 inWon+$8.13,01843.6%1,316 W · 1,702 L-28.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under75c17$13 inWon+$4.216657.2%95 W · 71 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.