Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06e861aaa381afdb8f2ecd84c829822f5bba709d5d13ff641c54623adfc69f4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Cavaliersof Arizona State Sun Devils, Virginia Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,394 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Virginia Cavaliers | 78c | 2,145$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.84 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 25c | 1,144$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.44 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 74c | 803.09$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.29 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 45c | 682.79$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.84 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 27c | 641$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.4 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 42c | 636.85$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.48 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 41c | 394.17$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.61 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 21c | 373.34$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 29c | 346.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 222 | 50%111 W · 111 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 8c | 293.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Virginia Cavaliers | 76c | 266.54$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Virginia Cavaliers | 79c | 196.04$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 10c | 159.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…03e9backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 32c | 134.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Virginia Cavaliers | 57c | 126$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 122.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 41c | 106.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 90.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 78c | 89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Virginia Cavaliers | 61c | 81.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 358 | 52%186 W · 172 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 24c | 75.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 23c | 69.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 29c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Virginia Cavaliers | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Virginia Cavaliers | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f6…a5eebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 22.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 102 | 59.8%61 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…6596backed Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Virginia Cavaliers | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 334 | 45.8%153 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 76c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.