Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x070a93532f47002ecffce5bae35573625c0970f13dcc14b572200603a226bd61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 630.33$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 381.1$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 332.97$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 56c | 248.05$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 46c | 245.1$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 43c | 211.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.74 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 76c | 189.63$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 51c | 146.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 138.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 15c | 132.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 57c | 122.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 52c | 119.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 119.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 15c | 115.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 115.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 72c | 112.23$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 56c | 81.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 77.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 77.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 53c | 74.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 61c | 74.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…5d76backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 61.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 43c | 60.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 56.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 47.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 44.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 45c | 44.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 56c | 40.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 54c | 39.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 43c | 38.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 45c | 38.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed No | 58c | 36.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 35c | 35.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked Yes | 66c | 35.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 35.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked No | 60c | 34.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 38c | 34.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 33.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 40c | 32.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 43c | 29.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 45c | 28.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed No | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 55c | 21.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 56c | 19.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 18.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 67c | 15.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 72c | 14.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.