Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07220651d3c454ba705b15c81eb59892719f0dcd4f8e61b00025eb879423dff4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e22…1fffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,875$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,689$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 1c | 1,563$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,439$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 534.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.54 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e9…8070backed Yes | 8c | 479.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 428.69$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 36c | 317.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.32 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 28c | 207.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 70c | 146.43$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 29c | 144$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 35c | 112.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 106.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 19c | 79.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 73c | 78.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 24c | 77.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 74.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 29c | 71.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 26c | 69.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 67.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 66.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 60.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 56.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 71c | 54.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 32c | 48.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 44.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 67c | 43.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 26c | 40.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 40.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 67c | 34.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed Yes | 30c | 34.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 26.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…558bbacked No | 76c | 25.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 71c | 25.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 74c | 24.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 21.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 20.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 19.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 17.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 73c | 17.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 72c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 77c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.