Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb51c38444e88507192f27f1c5af5a5c3309f0d8dd002c093a8893e3c0d8bfe2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 705.42$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 589.43$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.49 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 477.5$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.12 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 386.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 59c | 382.58$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.34 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 7c | 369.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 66c | 270.15$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 40c | 259$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.43 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 65c | 246.95$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.3 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 39c | 206.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.4 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 47c | 145.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 40c | 125.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 121.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 117.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 52c | 111.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 106.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…6412backed Yes | 58c | 105.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 101.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 53c | 91.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 79.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 44c | 77.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 70c | 71.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 73c | 69.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed No | 35c | 69.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 51c | 67.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 59.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 37c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 54.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 39c | 54.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 76c | 52.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 40c | 50.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 53c | 45.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…39aabacked No | 44c | 45.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 60c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 41.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 52c | 38.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…558bbacked No | 32c | 38.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 37.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 39c | 36.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 34.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202e…619cbacked Yes | 75c | 33.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed Yes | 36c | 32.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 61c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 67c | 30.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 69c | 30.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 29.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 25.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 54c | 25.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed No | 66c | 21.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.