TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,341
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,341 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…9044backed Yes56c1,562$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.838920.2%18 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No11c707.4$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.361,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes70c415.33$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.1731043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1075546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No44c338$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.954,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes64c240.59$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes78c224.43$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.919239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x726e…aafbbacked Yes75c200$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6523269%160 W · 72 L+23.7wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed Yes44c200$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.816038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No38c164.74$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.62,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No38c163.07$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.212,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No54c162.28$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.242,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf695…0045backed Yes60c160.22$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.422516%4 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-69.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No54c159.53$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3885049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No69c153.85$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No16c138$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.654,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No45c121.57$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6248743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes19c121.21$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.79,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes22c120.42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.391,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No27c119.66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.766,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c113.77$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.959,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes58c103.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.286,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes74c103$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.091,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes16c100.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No35c100.19$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.811,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e3…c67fbacked No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes16c91.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.751,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No54c84.11$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.423,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes62c82.09$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1916144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2809…1652backed Yes24c79.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.163040%12 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No47c78.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.957,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes79c75.08$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6820662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes47c74.12$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.284,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes58c73.9$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.942,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked No55c70.28$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.369145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5948…2d49backed No22c69.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155715.8%9 W · 48 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd69f…e526backed Yes29c68.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.972114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc317…a731backed Yes29c64.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.971631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No76c64.9$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3349551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No47c64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.062,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No42c63.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3477851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes45c62.75$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No46c61$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.095,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab5e…47f6backed No52c60.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.645935.6%21 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69a4…f990backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.43923.1%9 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No72c54.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6239968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No29c54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6633350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e80…1df6backed Yes53c53.87$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.26922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes70c53.23$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.872,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No25c53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.251,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No53c52.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8358358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No54c51.92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9221950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c7a…7be5backed No41c50.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.383545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7faa…c757backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.535362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.543663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2714745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2715345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No47c49.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.421,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes76c48.47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7217355.5%96 W · 77 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes60c46.6$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.742,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes51c46.18$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6324841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb368…202bbacked Yes77c45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.35580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c43.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.828,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked No54c42.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.926243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaf2…76f0backed No54c40.52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.881729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd1a…8572backed Yes76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.62161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No70c39.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6454547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes73c38.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3119345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes39c38.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3518814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No67c37.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No58c34.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9919753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9db6…f26dbacked Yes30c33.8$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+238%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes68c29.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.568667.4%58 W · 28 L+10.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No75c25.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.994,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.251,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06f…15c8backed No46c23.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No58c23.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.629751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed No58c21.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3523538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No52c20.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6958152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e6…eb2bbacked No74c20.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb073…54fbbacked No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142360.9%14 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.68458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8116…b2a8backed No68c18.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8512152.1%63 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes65c16.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8898160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No67c15.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2188973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1348…7037backed Yes78c14.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1717665.9%116 W · 60 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.