MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x074d026b16e19f0d1fa84db51a185c6bd0dfa2085b09e33945adc67b6c58fd26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof New York Mets, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked New York Mets | 39c | 1,844$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.12 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 1,817$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.97 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed New York Mets | 38c | 1,374$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.52 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed New York Mets | 39c | 769.58$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 605.44$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.09 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 70c | 560.55$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed New York Mets | 33c | 353.82$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.22 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 351$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed New York Mets | 15c | 267.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…d7e7backed New York Mets | 20c | 232.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 219.78$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked New York Mets | 38c | 204.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Mets | 32c | 181.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 27c | 144.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 140$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 126$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 126$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked New York Mets | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 115.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…0dbbbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 24c | 109.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed New York Mets | 38c | 101.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 98.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 84.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 80.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 64.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Boston Red Sox | 74c | 62.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 49.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 45.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked New York Mets | 38c | 35.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 28.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed New York Mets | 40c | 27.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Boston Red Sox | 75c | 22.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 18.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Boston Red Sox | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York MetsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.