MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87bb95f96d8b7619ad2734cb40ff867b7589cff69328158372f6101d98e3277b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 2,406$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.33 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 52c | 2,086$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.01 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets | 52c | 1,318$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.36 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked New York Mets | 66c | 1,199$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.16 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed New York Mets | 19c | 1,097$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.46 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed New York Mets | 21c | 877$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.12 | 820 | 42.6%349 W · 471 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c2…e9bfbacked New York Mets | 69c | 666$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.54 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 15c | 584$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed New York Mets | 15c | 481.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 327.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.75 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked New York Mets | 70c | 252.07$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.45 | 182 | 57.7%105 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…4261backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 148.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 47c | 134.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Boston Red Sox | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 116.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…d7e7backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 114.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Boston Red Sox | 31c | 101$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed New York Mets | 15c | 95.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed New York Mets | 15c | 95.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked New York Mets | 15c | 95.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed New York Mets | 15c | 95.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked New York Mets | 15c | 95.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…9ac2backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 94.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 44c | 78.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 45c | 78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 71.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 246 | 44.7%110 W · 136 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 52c | 71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked New York Mets | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 58.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Boston Red Sox | 31c | 56.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked New York Mets | 56c | 49.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 66c | 39.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 32.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 65c | 31.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Boston Red Sox | 79c | 30.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 24.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 22.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York MetsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.