MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x888aab5f39f46cc709e7bc039f0dbf56e68752f3c3247dc0b8b3125c8e9c38c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 49c | 15,261$7,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,420.28 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 13,409$7,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,164.07 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 6,446$3,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,096.92 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 3,018$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.95 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 40c | 1,829$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.43 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 40c | 1,515$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.91 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 40c | 742.95$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.18 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 661$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.67 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 59c | 439$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under | 55c | 360.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 48c | 330.5$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.64 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 40c | 303.81$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.53 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 52c | 301.94$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.93 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 41c | 201$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 40c | 133.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 47c | 105.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 36c | 100.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Under | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Under | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…eae9backed Under | 60c | 80.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 40c | 74.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 40c | 74.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 40c | 68.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1,013 | 50.3%510 W · 503 L | +51.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 56c | 44.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 38c | 31.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 47c | 29.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…7d35backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York MetsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.