MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bee4a46ffd73977e6d29f002df38eab079e1b571c53c5072e6ba544eea7c1ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x060f…5a9dbacked No | 56c | 6,943$3,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,868.72 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 41c | 4,000$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 52c | 1,405$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 42c | 568.32$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.31 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed No | 58c | 487.03$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 41c | 440.73$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.08 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 78c | 302$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 67c | 229$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 54c | 207.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.31 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 42c | 183$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.89 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 77c | 173$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 43c | 171$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 52c | 145$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 46c | 96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Yes | 74c | 72.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…afc3backed No | 26c | 64.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Yes | 46c | 55.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked Yes | 48c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked No | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 46c | 31.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Yes | 74c | 17.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Metsthis page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York MetsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.