MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa43a30644b9aee071baacb913488824eae56d20cc2f80fbffcd87e8005b1f2df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Under | 52c | 10,850$5,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,648.53 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 59c | 9,130$5,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,343.87 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 7,066$2,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,222.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 48c | 3,785$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.09 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 48c | 3,405$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.64 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 16c | 2,491$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,091.07 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 1,855$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.4 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 51c | 1,510$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.91 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 47c | 1,445$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.89 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 57c | 1,100$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.7 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 24c | 1,045$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 70c | 824$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.93 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 5c | 796.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 50c | 776$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 31c | 623.91$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.76 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 616.18$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.4 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 596$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.05 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…68f7backed Under | 51c | 540.84$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.83 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 48c | 417$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.47 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 16c | 384.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.39 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked Under | 11c | 379.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 300.82$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060d…d746backed Under | 79c | 253.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 69c | 234.72$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.25 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 48c | 225.36$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 40c | 209.2$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.96 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 31c | 205.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.81 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed Under | 10c | 203.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 49c | 201.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…594bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 35c | 192.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under | 67c | 145.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 49c | 144.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Under | 51c | 128.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 31c | 102.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 57c | 99.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 14c | 91.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 36c | 87.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Under | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 84.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 62c | 77.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 33c | 65.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 66c | 65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 49c | 61.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 59.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 19c | 55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Over | 35c | 52.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 43.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 50c | 43.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…7084backed Under | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Under | 50c | 39.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 59c | 32.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 65c | 32.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…7e2bbacked Under | 74c | 30.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…afc3backed Under | 56c | 28.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Over | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 79c | 27.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 45c | 26.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 61c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed2d…faeebacked Over | 49c | 20.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 69c | 19.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York MetsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.