Serie A · resolved market
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x074f64521ef2e87a8ab03d8dad171fc4be320c3b9303377ebda486d6e5482f65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 11c | 19,721$2,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,179.39 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 25c | 5,418$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.28 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 74c | 2,787$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.59 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 11c | 1,978$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.15 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Yes | 23c | 1,304$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Yes | 19c | 882.58$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 22c | 799.36$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.46 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 78c | 761.56$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.45 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 80c | 702.09$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…152bbacked No | 77c | 445$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 16c | 434.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Yes | 22c | 430$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 19c | 412.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 7c | 394.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 78c | 341.88$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 23c | 268$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…6598backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 23c | 239.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 23c | 228.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 75c | 191.94$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 77c | 184.73$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 12c | 173.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 22c | 160$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…46e8backed No | 68c | 148.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 17c | 142.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 18c | 137.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 22c | 135$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40f…2fa3backed Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 18c | 115.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 79c | 109$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b8…3539backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…122dbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…49d8backed Yes | 22c | 92.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f6…dc27backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Yes | 15c | 68.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…378bbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed Yes | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Yes | 22c | 46.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…7bb3backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…1176backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…8b43backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6e…02cfbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 46cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese end in a draw?this page
- Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-01?No won
- Will US Cremonese win on 2025-12-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.