Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0796731e23d889c05896907d637ac9e7e237d21a9002a376c5180108e7a4c819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Refuserof Roar Gaming, Team Refuser
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Refuser | 63c | 4,628$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.03 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Team Refuser | 76c | 2,331$1,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.16 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Roar Gaming | 10c | 2,285$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.21 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Roar Gaming | 23c | 1,938$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.33 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Team Refuser | 66c | 1,690$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.79 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…a3c4backed Roar Gaming | 34c | 1,531$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.86 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed Roar Gaming | 4c | 1,516$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Team Refuser | 75c | 1,497$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.95 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Roar Gaming | 23c | 1,134$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.29 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Roar Gaming | 31c | 1,120$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.53 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Roar Gaming | 34c | 999.97$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.81 | 357 | 37%132 W · 225 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Team Refuser | 75c | 938.2$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.03 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Team Refuser | 74c | 528.44$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.44 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c1…4ebbbacked Roar Gaming | 34c | 510$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa00…18b1backed Roar Gaming | 45c | 501$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Roar Gaming | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Roar Gaming | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 171 | 33.9%58 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Roar Gaming | 35c | 443$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.05 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Team Refuser | 64c | 420$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.7 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…f4dfbacked Roar Gaming | 15c | 412.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…814abacked Roar Gaming | 36c | 410.88$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.92 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Roar Gaming | 24c | 408.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf991…3965backed Roar Gaming | 36c | 405.74$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.06 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Roar Gaming | 6c | 404$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Roar Gaming | 29c | 386.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…3c1abacked Roar Gaming | 33c | 329.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.89 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Team Refuser | 66c | 309.99$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.7 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Team Refuser | 67c | 251$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Roar Gaming | 12c | 237.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Roar Gaming | 36c | 233.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Roar Gaming | 16c | 215.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Roar Gaming | 25c | 215.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e1…c97fbacked Roar Gaming | 39c | 210$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Team Refuser | 68c | 207.19$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Roar Gaming | 16c | 179.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Refuser | 72c | 178.57$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Roar Gaming | 30c | 174.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Team Refuser | 63c | 171.97$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Team Refuser | 63c | 162.46$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Team Refuser | 68c | 146.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Roar Gaming | 26c | 110.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Team Refuser | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x456e…968bbacked Roar Gaming | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Team Refuser | 68c | 86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee8b…dcd9backed Roar Gaming | 24c | 85.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Roar Gaming | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…d351backed Roar Gaming | 38c | 78.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 40.6%39 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…4cfbbacked Roar Gaming | 40c | 78.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Refuser | 64c | 77.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Team Refuser | 66c | 74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4d…44e5backed Roar Gaming | 17c | 68.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed Roar Gaming | 31c | 66.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…d8b8backed Roar Gaming | 37c | 59.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04d…2b19backed Roar Gaming | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Roar Gaming | 30c | 57.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…4498backed Roar Gaming | 20c | 54.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked Team Refuser | 71c | 45.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 124 | 56.5%70 W · 54 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Roar Gaming | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…7abdbacked Team Refuser | 72c | 38.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Roar Gaming | 32c | 34.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed Team Refuser | 64c | 32.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Refuser | 70c | 31.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…91b4backed Team Refuser | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…5403backed Team Refuser | 71c | 23.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…ea33backed Team Refuser | 67c | 19.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Team Refuser | 66c | 18.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c49…c6c2backed Team Refuser | 70c | 14.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Refuser won
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 WinnerTeam Refuser won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.