Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x750f8d1069396bc736c2b5013e507861bb9fea31919a8f26fd6814b9b53c17bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Refuserof Roar Gaming, Team Refuser
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Refuser | 60c | 2,713$1,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.06 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Team Refuser | 1c | 2,496$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,466.72 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…a3c4backed Roar Gaming | 35c | 1,916$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Roar Gaming | 45c | 1,341$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.19 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Roar Gaming | 37c | 1,194$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.3 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…a328backed Team Refuser | 50c | 928$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 283 | 47%133 W · 150 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Team Refuser | 42c | 809.74$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.2 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…3f84backed Team Refuser | 67c | 754.99$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.15 | 145 | 62.1%90 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Roar Gaming | 43c | 593.48$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.3 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Refuser | 65c | 547.87$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.53 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa00…18b1backed Roar Gaming | 45c | 501$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Roar Gaming | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 171 | 33.9%58 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…3c1abacked Team Refuser | 66c | 489.55$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb24f…3432backed Team Refuser | 61c | 469.95$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.85 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Team Refuser | 69c | 465.65$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked Roar Gaming | 36c | 427$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.72 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Roar Gaming | 34c | 399.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Roar Gaming | 52c | 381.33$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.52 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Roar Gaming | 73c | 323.8$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.19 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Roar Gaming | 18c | 308.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Team Refuser | 52c | 293$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.83 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Team Refuser | 76c | 271.45$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Roar Gaming | 32c | 220$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 357 | 37%132 W · 225 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Team Refuser | 57c | 197$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Roar Gaming | 54c | 190.92$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…8fd0backed Team Refuser | 28c | 175.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.44 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…1b0fbacked Roar Gaming | 54c | 165.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48bf…f7e2backed Roar Gaming | 39c | 149.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…6d99backed Roar Gaming | 50c | 117.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Team Refuser | 61c | 115.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe82c…4d90backed Team Refuser | 61c | 114.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Roar Gaming | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…7a70backed Team Refuser | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Refuser | 55c | 82.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Roar Gaming | 38c | 80.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Roar Gaming | 72c | 78.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03f…7560backed Roar Gaming | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed Team Refuser | 66c | 69.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Roar Gaming | 30c | 64.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team Refuser | 43c | 63.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Roar Gaming | 54c | 61.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Team Refuser | 74c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Team Refuser | 52c | 52.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…42a7backed Roar Gaming | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Roar Gaming | 56c | 44.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Roar Gaming | 33c | 41.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Roar Gaming | 41c | 41.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Roar Gaming | 35c | 39.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…71e0backed Roar Gaming | 37c | 39.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Team Refuser | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Team Refuser | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Team Refuser | 65c | 30.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Roar Gaming | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Roar Gaming | 46c | 25.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x2afa…a29ebacked Team Refuser | 78c | 25.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.7wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed Roar Gaming | 58c | 20.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x456e…968bbacked Roar Gaming | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…ea33backed Team Refuser | 64c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Refuser | 57c | 19.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Refuser won
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 WinnerTeam Refuser won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.