Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9afd11155f6115b378cfb88e25f14f6bec2fd0de2442694444bc3e7e722a10d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Refuserof Roar Gaming, Team Refuser
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Roar Gaming | 20c | 2,081$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.44 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x82db…26b7backed Roar Gaming | 20c | 2,010$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Roar Gaming | 14c | 1,982$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.12 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed Roar Gaming | 35c | 1,879$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.4 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Team Refuser | 80c | 1,600$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.65 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Team Refuser | 66c | 1,484$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.87 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Roar Gaming | 11c | 1,140$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.77 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -14.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…53d0backed Team Refuser | 62c | 961$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Roar Gaming | 13c | 788.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.61 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…9327backed Roar Gaming | 13c | 750.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Roar Gaming | 10c | 683$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Team Refuser | 74c | 543.09$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.28 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…ce32backed Roar Gaming | 17c | 484.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Refuser | 64c | 437.61$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.66 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Team Refuser | 69c | 431.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.71 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Roar Gaming | 32c | 420$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1a89backed Team Refuser | 65c | 380.06$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Team Refuser | 69c | 290.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.68 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Team Refuser | 75c | 265.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddc6…13c4backed Team Refuser | 67c | 264.61$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Team Refuser | 68c | 257$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.24 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Roar Gaming | 12c | 251.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Team Refuser | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…f683backed Team Refuser | 61c | 240$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Team Refuser | 71c | 232.39$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 150 | 69.3%104 W · 46 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Roar Gaming | 16c | 223.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Roar Gaming | 36c | 220$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb6…944cbacked Team Refuser | 65c | 200.02$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Roar Gaming | 19c | 195.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Roar Gaming | 15c | 191.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Refuser | 65c | 189.56$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Roar Gaming | 34c | 173.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Roar Gaming | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c1…0ddfbacked Roar Gaming | 34c | 158.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Roar Gaming | 32c | 155.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Refuser | 65c | 154.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…3b9bbacked Team Refuser | 76c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked Roar Gaming | 26c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Team Refuser | 71c | 140.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Roar Gaming | 23c | 136.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…d351backed Roar Gaming | 33c | 122.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 96 | 40.6%39 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Roar Gaming | 20c | 121.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed Roar Gaming | 33c | 116.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Roar Gaming | 45c | 111.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Team Refuser | 74c | 98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Roar Gaming | 31c | 96.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…1e43backed Roar Gaming | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Team Refuser | 43c | 81.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…1873backed Roar Gaming | 17c | 79.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…dad6backed Roar Gaming | 17c | 74.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Team Refuser | 69c | 72.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1050…43afbacked Team Refuser | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…7d23backed Roar Gaming | 36c | 69.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04d…2b19backed Roar Gaming | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…c1c4backed Roar Gaming | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Team Refuser | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Team Refuser | 67c | 56.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Team Refuser | 66c | 55.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…fbbbbacked Roar Gaming | 34c | 52.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Team Refuser | 63c | 47.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f55…deabbacked Roar Gaming | 31c | 43.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d1…cb84backed Team Refuser | 70c | 42.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…9bf5backed Team Refuser | 55c | 41.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Roar Gaming | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82c…4d90backed Team Refuser | 58c | 39.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Roar Gaming | 35c | 38.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Refuser | 68c | 38.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Team Refuser | 67c | 36.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Team Refuser | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 217 | 42.9%93 W · 124 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…5be7backed Roar Gaming | 61c | 32.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Team Refuser | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Roar Gaming | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…ea33backed Team Refuser | 64c | 23.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…9e2cbacked Team Refuser | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 68cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…d1c5backed Team Refuser | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…2184backed Team Refuser | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…cd90backed Roar Gaming | 60c | 17.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -5.8wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 WinnerTeam Refuser won
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 WinnerTeam Refuser won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.