Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or below on January 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07b10b380f13456592c0607b27ade360ff31296523a30c31d31a1a6535c9e335
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x407d…8db6backed No | 7c | 14,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed No | 4c | 1,013$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 4c | 904.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 8c | 849.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc993…6a45backed No | 7c | 736.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…cde9backed No | 5c | 623.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked No | 8c | 611.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 8c | 456.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 387$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 5c | 383.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 19c | 375.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 47c | 300$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 34c | 294.81$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…d588backed No | 6c | 277.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 6c | 272.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41be…2310backed No | 7c | 258.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 20c | 251.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad7…d2fdbacked Yes | 80c | 226.94$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 46c | 220$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 64c | 199.18$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 76c | 181.5$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 23c | 179.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…7f7bbacked Yes | 75c | 163.39$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…9d39backed No | 17c | 159.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…5875backed No | 12c | 136.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…8897backed Yes | 73c | 136.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…e7d2backed Yes | 79c | 125.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90e…39e3backed No | 14c | 116.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc349…bbe8backed Yes | 72c | 109.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 20c | 94.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 22c | 80.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb55d…2c36backed Yes | 78c | 75.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…5511backed No | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 26c | 63.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 67c | 60.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 60.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 76c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 75c | 52.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…4fd2backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 21c | 51.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ad…845ebacked Yes | 79c | 44.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…ac1dbacked Yes | 69c | 40.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4b…6b39backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…0941backed Yes | 78c | 37.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 38c | 35.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8b…547ebacked Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…0f5abacked Yes | 77c | 29.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06b…147fbacked Yes | 78c | 27.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3050…352ebacked Yes | 76c | 21.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…f0f6backed Yes | 72c | 20.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbee…7b46backed Yes | 75c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 65c | 20.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 80c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…0dcabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…5cf7backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2636…2716backed Yes | 63c | 16.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed Yes | 63c | 16.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df4…a56ebacked Yes | 71c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…6fcbbacked Yes | 79c | 12.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or below on January 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 40°C on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 41°C or higher on January 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.