South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0800aa5e41664ab5668c4cc6869095bc01cd0b2ea696e9941f326222a775b097
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 45c | 21,982$10,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000.52 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 53c | 15,582$8,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,260.01 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 10,608$5,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,618.77 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 2,156$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.11 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 2,116$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.89 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 1,883$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.85 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 54c | 1,278$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.1 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 1,233$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.41 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 27c | 841.3$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.25 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 62c | 714.86$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.49 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0a…c1d9backed Over | 54c | 714.1$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 57c | 712.88$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.08 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 33c | 631.18$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.91 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 19c | 628.1$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 18c | 373.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 317.16$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.27 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 31c | 300.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.69 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 67c | 298.72$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.41 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 52c | 296.42$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.14 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 275.87$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.73 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 31c | 224.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.08 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 54c | 207.19$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.31 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 41c | 197.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 55c | 190.86$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 69c | 159.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…2a86backed Over | 70c | 142.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…72cebacked Over | 31c | 136.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Over | 43c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 30c | 99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 56c | 90.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 54c | 85.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 67c | 81.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…f983backed Under | 60c | 73.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b5…8762backed Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Under | 55c | 53.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed Over | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…ec90backed Over | 70c | 51.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 57c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Over | 70c | 47.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 55c | 41.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 67c | 40.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 68c | 37.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Under | 55c | 37.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Over | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Over | 69c | 36.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Under | 56c | 30.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 68c | 29.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 35c | 28.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…08a2backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 66cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 56c | 26.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 68c | 25.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…0193backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…9b6cbacked Over | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 55c | 21.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Under | 55c | 21.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…7ae8backed Over | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5this page
- CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 2.5Under won
- CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)Estudiantes de La Plata won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)Estudiantes de La Plata won
- Spread: Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.