Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x080289ccb9c040cbe52aba4d84eef3c6c6595b5bf5a2135fe7a2d8b467686812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,747$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 4c | 1,621$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 1,145$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 10c | 1,081$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.34 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,050$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.31 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 663.74$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 8c | 523.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 436.14$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 7c | 366.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 39c | 355.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.54 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 9c | 301.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 76c | 297.53$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 15c | 289.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…d97fbacked Yes | 30c | 284.56$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 26c | 269.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 12c | 261$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 6c | 252.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 22c | 249.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 247.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 20c | 244.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 32c | 236.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 222.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…8a55backed Yes | 10c | 216.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 14c | 215.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 14c | 190.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 16c | 188.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 155$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 28c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 20c | 135.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 15c | 134.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 31c | 124.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 31c | 123.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 8c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 19c | 111.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 55c | 106.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 22c | 95.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 89.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 15c | 84.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 16c | 82.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 22c | 81.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 28c | 74.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6618…6881backed Yes | 23c | 74.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ac…41f3backed Yes | 14c | 73.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…8353backed Yes | 16c | 72.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 71.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 21c | 70.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 23c | 67.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 24c | 63.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 18c | 58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 78c | 56.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 23c | 56.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c82…2d47backed Yes | 22c | 54.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 79c | 54.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4b…c587backed Yes | 28c | 53.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 33c | 50.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 46.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 71c | 28.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 19.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…8c79backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.