TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,424

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,280 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed No3c4,886$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.68,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No24c1,536$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.255,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No3c1,470$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9863143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes30c1,376$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.428324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No17c1,035$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.544,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No40c1,013$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.491,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No53c518.38$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.463,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes34c415.71$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.1721236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No40c395.85$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.572,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes29c380.5$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.6837417.4%65 W · 309 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes56c372.02$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.46,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No23c364$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.165,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes78c353.7$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.5742849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes60c346.42$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.25349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed No15c342.76$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5939346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7615…308abacked No4c338.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9418441.3%76 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked No70c320.63$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.28845.5%40 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No47c300.11$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.8777151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No69c300$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.558358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No44c297.2$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.244,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes36c288.43$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.955,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0615…d288backed Yes35c283.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.971275%9 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+39.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No70c268.36$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.282,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No51c249.88$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0479040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No70c237$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.91,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes39c235$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.4212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed Yes74c232.23$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7528244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa5bc…8853backed Yes29c218$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.212030%6 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes21c213.45$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.611,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06d6…44bcbacked Yes33c209.44$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.033135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c200.34$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.095,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No74c175.31$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5497152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes37c174.16$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10931936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No10c166.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.382,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes24c165$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.41,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes22c160$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.819022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes31c158.49$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.362,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes21c150.91$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.2457948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No59c150.25$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2641760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes31c150$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No70c150$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10563255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes26c141.26$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.921,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No75c139.44$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9797570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes25c138.6$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.1518222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe558…0ca2backed Yes28c131.35$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.862450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes22c122.44$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.674,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed No56c122.42$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.818629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes23c117.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.039,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba2d…d402backed Yes34c114.28$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.42944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes78c114.15$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4414746.9%69 W · 78 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes61c112.7$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9936930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No68c109.64$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6324262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No15c107.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5653855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes25c105.21$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4149646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.37237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes36c98.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9817255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c97.28$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.162,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes31c96.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.773930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes31c96.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.772920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No76c96.72$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7342160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No69c96$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.242,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No31c90$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.813,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes29c88.31$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.443,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No21c86.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.241,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes34c86.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.382,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad6e…9244backed No52c82.63$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.08933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes35c78.83$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.438650%43 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes23c77.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5787437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc228…7539backed Yes27c76$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes33c73.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1848919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No67c73.87$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3967158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes43c71.72$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6844945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes34c71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.86825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes66c69.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4934935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes60c69.79$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5840265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No72c69.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9968867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x179e…2fe3backed No66c68.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1610857.4%62 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd372…04bebacked Yes52c65.56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7612052.5%63 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed No66c62.54$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9826253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes25c61.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.011,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes34c60.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.757,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.924,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.420027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No67c58.59$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3977555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes21c58.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7817536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes31c57.62$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7817831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No55c56.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.892,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes33c56.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8167633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes29c54.51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.516439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No72c54.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes29c53.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9455954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed No75c53.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4033351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No62c50.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7194552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No62c50.91$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.673,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes57c50.07$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7d8…a8cebacked No71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.59361.3%57 W · 36 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8533962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3925954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.