Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd2754909ab184571239194c02c09f62ec394ceade854eb95dc649f597eee42c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 3c | 4,886$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 24c | 1,536$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 3c | 1,470$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 30c | 1,376$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.4 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 1,035$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 40c | 1,013$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.49 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 518.38$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 34c | 415.71$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.17 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 395.85$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.57 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 29c | 380.5$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.68 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 372.02$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 364$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 78c | 353.7$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 60c | 346.42$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 15c | 342.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 4c | 338.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 70c | 320.63$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.2 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 47c | 300.11$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.87 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 69c | 300$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 297.2$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 288.43$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…d288backed Yes | 35c | 283.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.97 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 268.36$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 51c | 249.88$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.04 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 237$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 39c | 235$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 74c | 232.23$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…8853backed Yes | 29c | 218$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.21 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 213.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.61 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Yes | 33c | 209.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.03 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 200.34$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 74c | 175.31$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.54 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 37c | 174.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 10c | 166.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 165$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 22c | 160$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 31c | 158.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.36 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 21c | 150.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.24 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 59c | 150.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 141.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.92 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 139.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 25c | 138.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.15 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…0ca2backed Yes | 28c | 131.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.86 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 122.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 56c | 122.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 117.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba2d…d402backed Yes | 34c | 114.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 78c | 114.15$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 61c | 112.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 68c | 109.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 15c | 107.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 105.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 36c | 98.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 97.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 76c | 96.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 29c | 88.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 21c | 86.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 86.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed No | 52c | 82.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 35c | 78.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 77.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…7539backed Yes | 27c | 76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 33c | 73.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 67c | 73.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 43c | 71.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes | 34c | 71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 66c | 69.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 60c | 69.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 72c | 69.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 66c | 68.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 52c | 65.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 66c | 62.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 25c | 61.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 60.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 58.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 21c | 58.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 31c | 57.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 56.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 33c | 56.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 29c | 54.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 54.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 29c | 53.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 75c | 53.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 62c | 50.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 50.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 57c | 50.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.