Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0875adbe934d0dcfe0e0d5ab18269105b55c525dd7781046e24c48a7ce135e8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc13…8c5dbacked Yes | 48c | 959.12$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 897.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdd…49f2backed Yes | 39c | 715.6$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 11c | 392.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…e2afbacked Yes | 9c | 348.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…d820backed No | 50c | 307.69$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.85 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 304.3$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 301.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 29c | 298.94$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 4c | 267.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 7c | 256.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 7c | 254.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 250.96$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…02c3backed Yes | 18c | 230.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 18c | 214.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 64c | 205.22$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 198$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 11c | 177.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 154.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed No | 56c | 151.31$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 14c | 131.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 115.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 10c | 111.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 24c | 109.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 50c | 103.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 23c | 80.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 14c | 77.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 66.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89a…9beabacked Yes | 20c | 60.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…bde0backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 59c | 50.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 40c | 50.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 33.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x406f…327dbacked Yes | 32c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 68c | 27.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…f44abacked Yes | 38c | 27.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 65c | 27.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 67c | 25.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 24.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…225bbacked No | 49c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.