Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef09010834563d7d195393fc2520c9e62bbf0090ce26550c8b6238dd0f72413f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 8c | 1,277$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 1,061$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.11 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 801.04$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 26c | 725.51$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.55 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 46c | 594.27$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.82 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 530.57$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 477.1$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 403.3$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 368.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.62 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 19c | 329.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 8c | 302.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.06 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 15c | 286.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.82 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 265.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 72c | 261.67$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 248$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 14c | 244.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.88 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…5394backed Yes | 61c | 217.65$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 67c | 209.58$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 18c | 207.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.66 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed No | 77c | 206.42$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.97 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 50c | 197.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 13c | 197.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.79 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 34c | 176.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 73c | 172.05$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 40c | 171.52$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 167.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.74 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 63c | 157.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 149.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 139.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…ebeabacked Yes | 30c | 134$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 40c | 130.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 126.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 77c | 126.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 46c | 125.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 14c | 125.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 42c | 122.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 119.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 12c | 112.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 45c | 104.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 101.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 101.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…d6ffbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 16c | 96.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 13c | 94.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 67c | 90.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 40c | 81.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 32c | 78.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 26c | 76.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7229…ff73backed Yes | 25c | 73.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 72.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 65c | 72.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed No | 64c | 71.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 35c | 70.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 67c | 65.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 60.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 22c | 59.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…e519backed Yes | 32c | 59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 21c | 57.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 53.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 19c | 52.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 33c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 50.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a2…5c4abacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…962cbacked No | 27c | 49.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 44.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked No | 76c | 39.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 66c | 38.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 75c | 33.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 75c | 33.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked No | 70c | 29.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 66c | 27.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked No | 80c | 27.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadc2…45cfbacked No | 74c | 26.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 26.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 51c | 25.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 78c | 23.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f03…7308backed No | 65c | 21.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcd…7056backed No | 73c | 20.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 17.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.