Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ede52ae6b363e53728887684629f3b3fa6ac5f048460c115c035a7826539409
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,614$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 1c | 2,093$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,815$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.97 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,596$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 2c | 1,403$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 9c | 1,255$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 3c | 1,137$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…d820backed Yes | 4c | 1,048$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 13c | 940.62$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.12 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 803.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 771.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 6c | 762.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 650.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 543.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 486.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 6c | 456.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 382.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 6c | 375.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 5c | 372.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 6c | 360$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 4c | 349.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed Yes | 6c | 338.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 320.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 11c | 281.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 233.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 223.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…5394backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 8c | 196$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 9c | 194.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 6c | 186.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 7c | 167.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 20c | 152.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 77c | 148.8$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 136.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 10c | 113.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 33c | 100.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 19c | 100.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…e519backed Yes | 21c | 97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 15c | 90.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 18c | 90.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 72.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 21c | 72.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 67c | 70.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 29c | 47.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7229…ff73backed Yes | 26c | 46.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 80c | 27.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 76c | 20.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 77c | 18.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…59e0backed No | 70c | 17.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.