Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x436a1612b13a5626d09f9be993f944ad403892037d730fb8618612536799c32e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 4c | 2,750$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 2c | 2,070$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 592.11$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 559.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 47c | 429.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 61c | 419.9$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.69 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 379.3$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 366.35$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.59 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 64c | 351.18$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.95 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 38c | 296.77$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.11 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 58c | 282.88$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.63 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 22c | 270.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 71c | 253.53$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.86 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 240.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 45c | 237.76$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.42 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 35c | 223.33$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 34c | 204.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…88e0backed Yes | 64c | 186.2$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 180.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes | 31c | 179.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 43c | 179.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 179.04$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 176$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 69c | 145.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 74c | 141.76$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 47c | 138.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 137.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 43c | 135.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 129.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 51c | 126.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 27c | 126.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 38c | 124.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 121.77$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 119.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 77c | 115.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 114.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 68c | 111.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 31c | 111.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 67c | 108.82$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 47c | 107.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 20c | 107.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 42c | 105.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 45c | 105.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 37c | 105$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 59c | 103.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 80c | 102.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 21c | 102$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 100.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…1ec7backed Yes | 76c | 99.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 51c | 90.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 19c | 88.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 72c | 86.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 82.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 80.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 48c | 79.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 24c | 75.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 74.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 62c | 70.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 50c | 69.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 27c | 68.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 26c | 67.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 76c | 66.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 62.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 35c | 61.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 43c | 60.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 32c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 58.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 34c | 58.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1d…f7e6backed Yes | 27c | 55.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 28c | 46.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…ec7fbacked No | 56c | 45.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaed…67b8backed Yes | 34c | 43.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 75c | 43.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 43.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 67c | 40.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 29c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes | 40c | 39.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 80c | 38.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 45c | 37.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.