Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d5b823578111797b156bc5e0d670e05b96c0479876b08f8eaa91ca3b96580d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x139b…2db1backed Yes | 14c | 999.88$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed Yes | 7c | 799.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 17c | 623.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 30c | 400$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.71 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 304.3$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 300.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 269.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 23c | 256.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 14c | 236.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 235.53$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 231.77$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 202.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 19c | 200.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 67c | 195$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 32c | 185.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7254…39c0backed Yes | 48c | 184.07$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 166.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 163.85$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 22c | 152$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 146$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 28c | 132.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 130.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 24c | 129.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 10c | 129.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 23c | 128.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 127.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 15c | 115.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 80c | 111.34$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 10c | 109.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 16c | 105.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 14c | 105.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Yes | 32c | 105.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cd…f8a1backed Yes | 15c | 102.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…0a00backed Yes | 20c | 95.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 31c | 94.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89a…9beabacked Yes | 27c | 90.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 21c | 86.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 86.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 32c | 83.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 16c | 83.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 35c | 83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 14c | 80.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 13c | 75.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 22c | 68.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 74c | 67.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 22c | 66.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 72c | 63.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 33c | 61.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…36f6backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 28c | 52.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 51.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 50.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…ebeabacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 25c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 24c | 48.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 42.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 41.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…225bbacked No | 50c | 36.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 71c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…44ebbacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 33.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 33.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 59c | 31.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 33c | 31.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 31.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 31.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 53c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 23.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 20.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 20.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 74c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 70c | 18.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 65c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 16.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 68c | 16.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed No | 77c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.