Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08a6728e72222eb3c8d87ff97f227df6eefad8f42944c86f16e1113a8eb0d1e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked Yes | 2c | 16,339$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 1,402$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 27c | 750$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 608.07$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 71c | 565.55$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.55 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 26c | 411.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 352.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 336.41$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 29c | 326.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 312.12$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 76c | 281.79$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed No | 72c | 275.02$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.51 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 40c | 271.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa29c…572abacked Yes | 26c | 260.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 235.94$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 29c | 220.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 27c | 214.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 28c | 206.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 192$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 24c | 190$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 187.12$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 23c | 177.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 176.14$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 70c | 175.6$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes | 27c | 156.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 143.14$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 140.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 18c | 140.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed No | 73c | 136.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 65c | 135.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 25c | 135$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 134.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…af35backed No | 76c | 132.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 130$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 118$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 115.13$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 108.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 45c | 100.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 67c | 99.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…d266backed No | 76c | 95.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 95.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4917…8bbebacked Yes | 29c | 87.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 86.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed No | 73c | 84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 27c | 83.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 74c | 83.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 38c | 82.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 82.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 80c | 79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 27c | 77.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 34c | 77.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 32c | 76.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 74.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 45c | 72.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 24c | 68.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 66.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 23c | 64.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 62.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 74c | 61.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…fb74backed Yes | 26c | 54.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 20c | 53.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 52.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ec…b2d9backed No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 20c | 50.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 50.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 26c | 47.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 80c | 45.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 25c | 44.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 53c | 43.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 40c | 43.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 77c | 43.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 41.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 38.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 36.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26a…625cbacked No | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 68c | 30.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 35c | 30.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.