Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50920718c7dcea6b35f35b2f61d13777bfcd8fe2233049381ec68d23de146308
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked No | 75c | 1,369$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,357$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.15 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 960.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 29c | 793.83$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.68 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 24c | 633.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 5c | 590.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 10c | 509.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 397.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 24c | 384.54$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 5c | 371.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 330.07$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 317.1$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 4c | 308.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 269$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 77c | 232.6$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 10c | 221.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 20c | 210.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 26c | 195.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 72c | 145.56$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 25c | 140.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 131.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 11c | 127.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 76c | 125.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 20c | 120.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 27c | 113.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 112.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 74c | 108.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f79…1c85backed No | 75c | 106.51$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 22c | 103$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 76c | 100.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…2bb3backed Yes | 28c | 99.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 90.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…b129backed No | 64c | 83.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 79c | 80.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 75.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 24c | 63.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 48.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 41.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 78c | 40.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 75c | 36.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 35.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked No | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 32.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…4dbfbacked No | 68c | 28.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 23.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 78c | 20.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e68…d2a6backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 76c | 18.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 73c | 17.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0c…b790backed No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…1bf6backed No | 77c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.