Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21586b4ca701bdc6984254d83786ccfc4e76e491e4624beda8b55f2124eb99c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 1,209$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 52c | 774.48$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.86 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 640.27$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 548.1$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 45c | 445.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.36 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 432.81$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 50c | 350.79$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.07 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 343.65$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.3 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 336.75$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 53c | 330$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.84 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 51c | 304.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.86 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 53c | 255.47$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 5c | 251.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 45c | 214.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.79 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 48c | 211$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c53…3145backed Yes | 43c | 210$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 202.03$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 53c | 199.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 191.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 54c | 185.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 51c | 184.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 43c | 170$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 57c | 154.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 51c | 137.39$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 131$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 128$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 54c | 127.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 120.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 55c | 119.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 48c | 113.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 99.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 44c | 99.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 76c | 97.34$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 42c | 95.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 46c | 94.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 51c | 86.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 60c | 83.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 81.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 50c | 75.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 49c | 74.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 45c | 73.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 70.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 43c | 70.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 51c | 69.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 47c | 68.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 48c | 66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 55c | 65.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 43c | 64.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 54c | 64.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 44c | 62.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 59c | 62.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 61.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4b…fe45backed Yes | 48c | 61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…fa2bbacked No | 47c | 59.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 51c | 59.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 49c | 59.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 50c | 56.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 49c | 55.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 45c | 53.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 52.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 48c | 51.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 57c | 50.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 49c | 48.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 51c | 47.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 54c | 46.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 47c | 46.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 52c | 46.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 42c | 45.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 50c | 43.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 47c | 42.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 52c | 38.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…95e4backed No | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 34.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 46c | 34.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked No | 51c | 34.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…2bb3backed Yes | 48c | 32.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 51c | 31.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 49c | 30.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 59c | 30.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.