Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on November 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08e1251dbb82daad8fbcabdc90cf0a515cd4f0860c0edd367aa1f377b4469f7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 21c | 997.08$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.36 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 7c | 891.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 20c | 781.5$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.71 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 9c | 763.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf276…0ddebacked Yes | 13c | 700$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1805…4571backed Yes | 24c | 413.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 11c | 399.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 24c | 399.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 347.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 334.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 11c | 321.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed Yes | 28c | 320.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 4c | 302.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 300.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 269.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 237.95$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 15c | 209.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…cd99backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 28c | 179.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 75c | 164.75$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 152.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe816…74c5backed Yes | 11c | 151.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 78c | 109.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…7ab2backed No | 79c | 99.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 22c | 73.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 68.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 21c | 63.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…fba2backed No | 76c | 59.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…3866backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d26…a28bbacked No | 73c | 45.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 77c | 43.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed No | 76c | 31.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 80c | 23.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on November 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 39°F or below on November 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or higher on November 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on November 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on November 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.