TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,621
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,646

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,621 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf276…0ddebacked Yes59c1,513$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d1…d015backed Yes72c1,422$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.03650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a37…093fbacked Yes4c1,047$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.23616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked No27c997.07$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.4347834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c752.05$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.6312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No32c679.25$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.8746626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eec…be17backed No41c660.27$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.733525.7%9 W · 26 L-7.7wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-46.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No59c648.42$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.049649%47 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No34c638.06$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.082,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcab9…99d0backed No55c523.59$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.042152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ffd…0a51backed Yes7c517.87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.39425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes70c516.99$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.671338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd49e…5110backed No32c500$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3408924.7%22 W · 67 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No49c437.21$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.625756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc269…8d0ebacked Yes66c365.76$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc631…9655backed Yes67c345.54$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.273663.9%23 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+23.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bd8…e456backed Yes69c333$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf55…446dbacked Yes41c322.49$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.854835.4%17 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes37c318.98$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1182751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes58c302.08$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.8717042.9%73 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4277…9575backed Yes69c291.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4b7…f9e3backed No67c284.61$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.873060%18 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No44c265.25$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.244254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe428…7a88backed Yes70c258.46$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.3425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-62.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed No39c245$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.2512624.6%31 W · 95 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes46c215$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.84835.4%17 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Yes45c205.73$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.174030%12 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2228718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ef…c822backed Yes70c199.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.79540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid+30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c199.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.9895942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1805…4571backed Yes50c196.2$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes48c188.67$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1317334.7%60 W · 113 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes44c178.03$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.641,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes78c163.36$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.422339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-27.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe816…74c5backed Yes46c159$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.14825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-55.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8972…ab4bbacked No57c151.14$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.661346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c2…1398backed Yes77c150$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d86…e267backed Yes67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes40c147.28$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.042,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes35c146.19$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.021,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes28c139.26$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0193034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No50c139$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5684759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes51c130$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.456139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb0…611abacked Yes56c129.8$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.695541.8%23 W · 32 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x998a…745bbacked Yes12c129.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514252.1%74 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes35c127.31$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8419937.7%75 W · 124 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f70…d13abacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109433.4%32 W · 911 L-1.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes62c115.17$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b55…f0febacked Yes45c113.4$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.41457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefb9…7828backed Yes47c106.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505560%33 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes78c106$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No51c102.38$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5056434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…afb9backed Yes49c100.54$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.285042%21 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3272125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd2a…9baabacked Yes65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc55f…d26abacked Yes40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408637.2%32 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes27c99.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.361,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Yes27c99.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3520728%58 W · 149 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+46.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75a1…b40ebacked Yes48c99.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.06540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No53c94.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.782623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes50c89.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4515752.2%82 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f8…f8d5backed No44c88.81$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7354529.5%161 W · 384 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad7b…80c9backed No35c80$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525236.5%19 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x017b…4e46backed Yes53c78.56$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No52c71.88$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.753,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a8e…5593backed Yes39c64.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253253.1%17 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e7…5ddfbacked Yes78c64.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c84…787dbacked Yes67c62.36$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked No50c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.511323%26 W · 87 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes45c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.530333%100 W · 203 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ab0…8963backed Yes46c54.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252055%11 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca9b…217fbacked Yes46c52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.83444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes38c51.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.666735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc994…833dbacked Yes79c50.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401050%5 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2011…f296backed Yes62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.527246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…7afabacked Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2212237.7%46 W · 76 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…87a9backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2346423.5%109 W · 355 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes42c49.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2172726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes47c48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7132044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51b7…d820backed Yes44c46.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5825436.6%93 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf526…2fbdbacked Yes45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x302e…e97fbacked Yes60c41.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc38d…48e3backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.71952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5222…d2f6backed Yes45c39.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.994643.5%20 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No52c37.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.047,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf0…0274backed Yes36c36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.965429.6%16 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x466f…ff73backed Yes47c30.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2215558.1%90 W · 65 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…aa3abacked Yes65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.153148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes70c28.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206723.9%16 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No41c28.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6811540%46 W · 69 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8d8…31f1backed Yes43c26.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.491154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes42c26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.924643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3e87…b3ccbacked Yes78c24.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3646…602fbacked Yes50c23.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.63540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b6…93ccbacked No65c22.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.68922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a56…fbdcbacked Yes52c21.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.