Champions League · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08e49d5c3d26a90aa5a0de36a2a28b5aafd272b765aae507c7b454f6b9142cab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Under | 48c | 13,000$6,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,239.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 53c | 8,370$4,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,973.3 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 2,166$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.57 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed Over | 55c | 1,816$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.22 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 1,452$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.57 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 63c | 756$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.15 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 37c | 657$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.69 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 56c | 448.05$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.05 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 61c | 443.94$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.94 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 48c | 409.99$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.69 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 55c | 401.89$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.85 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 328.07$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 74c | 280.12$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 60c | 240$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +10.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8d…854cbacked Under | 47c | 211.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.9wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 52c | 204$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Under | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 50c | 190.82$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.32 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedcd…a1c7backed Over | 65c | 141.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 45c | 127$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 32c | 115$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1703backed Under | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…8bf8backed Under | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…01e0backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb7…618ebacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c30…186dbacked Under | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Over | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 198 | 56.6%112 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Over | 50c | 57.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0f…6715backed Over | 61c | 57.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…7d64backed Over | 65c | 53.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Over | 71c | 49.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 50c | 47.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd326…3da7backed Over | 55c | 44.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed Over | 54c | 41.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8c…2157backed Over | 73c | 37.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Over | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 68c | 37.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b86…2087backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 53c | 29.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 64c | 26.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…1218backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.