Champions League · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10c61a77447c3e689b05aced6255b7f86b8e9e56bd98e0acf3eff8075f4970d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac47…d234backed Under | 67c | 43,404$29,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,080.54 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 28,133$9,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,821.45 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 33c | 13,078$4,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,729.53 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 2,748$1,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.35 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…9719backed Under | 28c | 1,779$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Over | 35c | 1,428$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.11 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 33c | 1,040$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.45 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 50c | 1,038$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 66c | 762.87$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…896ebacked Under | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 31c | 603$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.07 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 69c | 599.99$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.38 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 33c | 572.34$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.47 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Under | 55c | 534.25$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.84 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…0de9backed Under | 67c | 441.32$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.78 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 66c | 411.88$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.48 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…395abacked Over | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 32c | 398.75$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.5 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 61c | 360.66$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 26c | 313.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Under | 52c | 288.79$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.17 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 41c | 201.08$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…16c1backed Under | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Over | 51c | 157.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…7d4cbacked Under | 48c | 139.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85a…6f28backed Under | 68c | 112.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1703backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696b…8181backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6da…01cebacked Over | 35c | 100.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Over | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 31c | 95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 35c | 88.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…893bbacked Under | 71c | 84.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb4…712cbacked Under | 61c | 82.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…6a16backed Under | 37c | 80.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…e118backed Over | 35c | 73.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 53c | 71.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…7ab1backed Under | 52c | 67.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 67c | 65.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a6…57c9backed Over | 33c | 65.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Under | 56c | 63.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 51c | 57.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Over | 64c | 56.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 28c | 56.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…7d64backed Under | 61c | 55.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f5…8797backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe10c…e7e2backed Under | 63c | 48.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 70c | 48.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Over | 49c | 45.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 68c | 43.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…a6edbacked Under | 56c | 43.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 55c | 38.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8c…2157backed Under | 49c | 35.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Under | 68c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e20…3b66backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Over | 48c | 28.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…a45bbacked Under | 65c | 25.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 58c | 22.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…c658backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…f9febacked Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c06…84a9backed Over | 56c | 18.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 70c | 17.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b0…07bfbacked Under | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.