Champions League · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa76768519e90cf83c05fdaaddd9be07f29543c7d16a6f97fe43e9e15ecf8b119
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 72c | 4,804$3,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.13 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 28c | 4,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 3,341$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.84 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 75c | 2,422$1,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.43 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 72c | 708.33$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.33 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 28c | 604.05$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.05 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 13c | 596$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 73c | 570$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.9 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 28c | 524.1$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.75 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 72c | 389.72$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Under | 29c | 201.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 26c | 198$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 12c | 146.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 25c | 98.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcb…4381backed Under | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Under | 13c | 84.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 71c | 84.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…5f03backed Over | 76c | 79.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 75c | 74.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…aeaabacked Over | 75c | 62.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -7.2wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -32%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Under | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6471…42a1backed Under | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 72c | 34.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194a…cd3dbacked Over | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0868…c04bbacked Over | 73c | 18.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb8…7529backed Over | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.