Premier League · resolved market
Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09404951e3cd83ce019059386bcbbbc123dcc1be0fa5804a24d27f02b045b571
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Over | 1c | 3,023$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 16c | 2,311$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.17 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 2,084$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.77 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 36c | 1,620$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.23 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 1c | 1,613$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 125 | 43.2%54 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 11c | 1,601$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.01 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 17c | 1,419$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.63 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Under | 76c | 1,285$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.96 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 13c | 1,137$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.86 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Over | 6c | 658.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 14c | 554.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…0104backed Under | 77c | 343.87$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 23c | 299.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 131 | 32.1%42 W · 89 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…680dbacked Over | 24c | 298.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 11c | 278.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 13c | 236.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 212 | 50%106 W · 106 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 80c | 197.6$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 108 | 74.1%80 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef9…8a00backed Under | 75c | 131.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…748cbacked Under | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 16c | 103.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Under | 65c | 97.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 13c | 94.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 22c | 66.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…03b7backed Under | 74c | 61.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 79c | 48.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f05…37acbacked Under | 68c | 44.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x619e…0149backed Under | 67c | 43.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Under | 79c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 42 | 78.6%33 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 76c | 21.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 73 | 69.9%51 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Liverpool FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)Liverpool FC won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)Liverpool FC won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.