Spread: Saint Mary's Gaels (-15.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09481ac5fadc93c913c50dc546ecb2a42da7916ea1824de97e791b7913d7694f

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Washington State Cougarsof Saint Mary's Gaels, Washington State Cougars
Resolved: Jan 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $584,325
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $584,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $584,325 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Washington State Cougars	51c	568,063$289,630 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278,433.17	359	45.1%162 W · 197 L	-24.4wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Saint Mary's Gaels	49c	200,000$98,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98,000	217	54.8%119 W · 98 L	+15.3wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Saint Mary's Gaels	49c	200,000$98,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98,000	82	46.3%38 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Saint Mary's Gaels	49c	125,000$61,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61,250	691	42.8%296 W · 395 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Saint Mary's Gaels	49c	19,680$9,643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,643.19	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	7,777$3,889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,888.5	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Saint Mary's Gaels	49c	4,317$2,115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,115.33	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	-8.7wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Washington State Cougars	50c	3,749$1,875 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,874.5	605	48.9%296 W · 309 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07bc…393abacked Saint Mary's Gaels	49c	3,125$1,531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,531.25	83	51.8%43 W · 40 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	170	50.6%86 W · 84 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	49c	2,347$1,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,149.83	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	138	51.4%71 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	49c	1,521$753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$752.78	136	51.5%70 W · 66 L	+5.6wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Saint Mary's Gaels	53c	1,500$795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$795	50	44%22 W · 28 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Washington State Cougars	47c	1,460$686 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$773.79	190	50.5%96 W · 94 L	+15.7wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	1,241$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$633	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington State Cougars	49c	1,045$512 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$532.95	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Washington State Cougars	50c	1,006$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$505.21	216	36.1%78 W · 138 L	-10.4wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Washington State Cougars	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	67	43.3%29 W · 38 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Washington State Cougars	49c	500$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	50	54%27 W · 23 L	+5.6wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	497$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.43	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed Saint Mary's Gaels	55c	475$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	450$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.5	70	42.9%30 W · 40 L	-4.9wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe00f…c254backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	384.31$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	90	56.7%51 W · 39 L	+6.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Washington State Cougars	50c	340$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170	794	48.9%388 W · 406 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadec…88fdbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	330$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.3	61	44.3%27 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	293.3$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.7	180	46.7%84 W · 96 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Washington State Cougars	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	1,070	46.9%502 W · 568 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1c3…be5abacked Saint Mary's Gaels	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Saint Mary's Gaels	52c	188.46$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	196	57.1%112 W · 84 L	+14.9wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed Saint Mary's Gaels	29c	150$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	111	47.7%53 W · 58 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	20c	150$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	88	14.8%13 W · 75 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fb6…ac56backed Saint Mary's Gaels	69c	144.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	49c	136.65$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.03	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1c…b4f1backed Saint Mary's Gaels	49c	103$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.47	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-5.9wins	-0.33per pick	50cpaid	-66%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	102$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	186	46.2%86 W · 100 L	-5.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Saint Mary's Gaels	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	160	8.1%13 W · 147 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1cb…fb77backed Saint Mary's Gaels	73c	100$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	102	52%53 W · 49 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Saint Mary's Gaels	71c	99.99$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.99	2,003	53.7%1,076 W · 927 L	+101.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b46…944cbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	186	56.5%105 W · 81 L	+12.2wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad01…6f40backed Saint Mary's Gaels	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	30	30%9 W · 21 L	-5.2wins	-0.17per pick	47cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xef34…86b2backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	95.61$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.76	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	52c	93$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.36	105	36.2%38 W · 67 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-25%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b9…0a9bbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	87.25$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.5	73	50.7%37 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aea…5590backed Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	80.75$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.38	158	44.3%70 W · 88 L	-6.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04f2…bc84backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Saint Mary's Gaels	21c	67.8$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	2,124	50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L	+40.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56d2…7afcbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	58.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61bb…aca7backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	58.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc0f…bbfebacked Saint Mary's Gaels	30c	52.38$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.88	66	53%35 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3eb6…2abbbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	70	17.1%12 W · 58 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Washington State Cougars	47c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	346	49.1%170 W · 176 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Washington State Cougars	49c	49.99$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	152	50%76 W · 76 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd20e…f698backed Saint Mary's Gaels	74c	48.65$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x865a…901bbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	125	60%75 W · 50 L	+12.0wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9899…a7f5backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d1…3a4abacked Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-3.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc981…a53dbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf389…e45dbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	49c	39$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.11	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81e8…f566backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	38.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08b6…7db6backed Saint Mary's Gaels	59c	33.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	122	45.9%56 W · 66 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b02…399dbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	52c	32.31$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.3wins	-0.38per pick	55cpaid	-77.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0bdf…7f09backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	31.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.98	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	+9.9wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0f6…a31cbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	32	68.8%22 W · 10 L	+6.2wins	+0.20per pick	49cpaid	+39.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3bbe…03c5backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.79	45	57.8%26 W · 19 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2722…697abacked Saint Mary's Gaels	52c	21.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	20.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	50	58%29 W · 21 L	+5.1wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x20c8…6354backed Saint Mary's Gaels	49c	20.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	627	53%332 W · 295 L	+13.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Saint Mary's Gaels (-15.5)this page
Washington State Cougars vs. Saint Mary's GaelsSaint Mary's Gaels won
Washington State Cougars vs. Saint Mary's Gaels: O/U 141.5Over won
Washington State Cougars vs. Saint Mary's Gaels: O/U 142.5Over won
Washington State Cougars vs. Saint Mary's Gaels: O/U 143.5Over won
Washington State Cougars vs. Saint Mary's Gaels: O/U 144.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Saint Mary's Gaels (-15.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event