NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x097e0767e0711f82be0a26a45794300b43218c7bf08d2afd120ed6eecaae68b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 24,542$11,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,761.78 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 21,589$10,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,010.87 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Under | 52c | 11,538$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 9,376$4,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,816.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Under | 52c | 6,767$3,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,518.83 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9080…d00abacked Under | 52c | 5,356$2,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,785.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 51c | 2,916$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.96 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 51c | 2,331$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.81 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Under | 52c | 2,082$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 1,862$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 1,679$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.71 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Over | 48c | 1,354$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.17 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 48c | 1,070$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.4 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 53c | 1,066$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 900$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd804…832dbacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Under | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 8c | 231.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x131e…3343backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…6c9dbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Under | 53c | 143.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 219 | 48.9%107 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 115.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Under | 51c | 106.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…d3e2backed Under | 54c | 100.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed Under | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 55c | 86.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 53c | 81.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 51c | 78.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 61.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7730…a854backed Under | 46c | 60.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2322…d8ffbacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Under | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c3…5ce1backed Under | 41c | 32.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +188.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 64c | 31.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Over | 42c | 26.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 26.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 25.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5this page
- Kings vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Kings vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Kings vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Kings vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Kings won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Kings won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.